US Payrolls Miss and Rate-Cut Odds Jump as Dollar Weakens

Economic Calendar & Events
Written By Christy Duffy

Quick Summary

  • US nonfarm payrolls rose only 22,000 in August versus 75,000 expected

  • Unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent from 4.2 percent

  • Dollar falls more than 0.5 percent versus key peers by 09:15 ET

  • Fed rate cut odds climb sharply into year end

  • No other major releases today – calmer lanes ahead

Intro

The US jobs engine sputtered in August. Just 22,000 new jobs added—well below forecasts. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3 percent. The dollar reacted immediately, sliding across all major pairs. Market pricing now tilts toward a Fed rate cut. Today brings little else, so attention shifts to how long this shock ripples through FX and bond yields.

Today's Economic Calendar

Nonfarm Payrolls (August, released 08:30 ET)

Unemployment Rate (August)

  • Actual: 4.3 percent

  • Prior: 4.2 percent Reuters+1

No other data scheduled for today. Market eyes now turn to inflation and Fed commentary.

Market Reactions

  • USD index down ~0.5 percent by 09:15 ET

  • EUR/USD up roughly +55 pips to 1.0800

  • GBP/USD gains +60 pips to 1.2500

  • 10-year Treasury yield down ~8 bps to 3.65 percent
    Markets recalibrated to weaker job data and higher odds of Fed easing Reuters+1

Prediction & Forward Outlook

Analysis: The payroll miss changes the narrative. Expect rate-cut pricing to firm further. The dollar may stay under pressure if inflation data disappoints. Watch for upcoming ISM and CPI next week – if they undershoot, watch the dollar slip further and bond yields decline.

Key Levels to Watch

  • EUR/USD: 1.0750 (support), 1.0850 (resistance) as of 09:15 ET

  • USD/JPY: 145.00 key resistance if yen strengthens

  • 10-year yield: 3.60 percent zone may hold

  • Fed funds futures: implied cuts now near 50 bps by year end Forex Factory

FAQ

Why did the dollar fall after the payrolls number?
Because jobs came in well below expectations at 22,000 versus 75,000 forecast. That weakens the rate-hike case and boosts easing bets.

Does one weak jobs report guarantee rate cuts?
No. It shifts probability. Markets now expect action if upcoming data also underperforms. Core inflation and ISM data will be decisive.

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Sources

Disclaimer
This information is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.


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Christy Duffy

Christy is the founder of USDxchange and brings over a decade of experience in business management and market analysis. He leads the Daily Market Roundup, focusing on U.S. equities, Treasury yields, and dollar-driven global trends. Known for his modern, savvy trader-style commentary, Christy makes complex financial moves accessible while grounding every update in data from leading platforms like Bloomberg, Reuters, and Investing.com.

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