Bitcoin holds near 114K as dollar steadies and stocks stay strong
Bitcoin takes the spotlight again as the greenback pauses and stocks refuse to blink. BTC trades around 114K as of the early US morning while ETH sits near 4.4K. The dollar index hovers just under 98 and index futures lean higher after fresh records this week. Flows into spot crypto ETFs turned positive overnight. This is the Morning edition and yes I am still bullish.
Quick Summary
BTC around 114K at 02:05 ET with firm dip buying. CoinDesk
ETH near 4.4K and tracking BTC beta. CoinDesk+1
Dollar index sits near 97.8 to 97.9 into US inflation risk later. Bloomberg+1
S&P and Nasdaq just printed record closes this week and futures stay supported. Reuters+2Reuters+2
Crypto ETF flows flipped positive overnight which keeps floor buyers active. CoinDesk
Patrick’s take
The market is handing you a clean read. Dollar momentum is cooling. Equities are still levitating on earnings and AI narratives. Crypto just put in positive ETF flow prints and BTC is back sniffing the top of its August range. Until the dollar rips or the next inflation print shocks, dips in BTC and ETH get bought. The path of least resistance is up.
Crypto vs USD
BTC USD
Bitcoin trades near 114K with modest intraday ranges in Asia and Europe and a series of higher lows since yesterday’s New York close. Spot ETF flow turned positive again with hundreds of millions in net inflows reported in the last session and that matters for direction because it offsets miner and long term holder supply. Technicals show buyers defending the 112K to 113K band while 115K to 116K is the first test above. CoinDesk+1
ETH USD
Ethereum tracks higher near 4.4K with correlation to BTC steady. Options markets price a mild downside bias into the US inflation release but spot still leans bid alongside BTC. For traders the first support is around 4.32K then 4.25K while 4.45K to 4.5K caps the top side unless BTC breaks out first. CoinDesk+1
Drivers
Positive crypto ETF flows support spot demand. CoinDesk
Macro supports risk. Dollar index is off its recent highs and equities are firm. Bloomberg+2MarketWatch+2
Sentiment is split near term with some desks warning about a bull trap into the inflation data, but price still respects support. CoinDesk
Stocks vs USD
US indices
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq printed fresh record closes this week and index futures remain elevated after software and AI names ripped. Oracle’s surge and raised cloud outlook helped push futures to fresh highs into today’s session. When US stocks grind higher while the dollar cools, crypto usually rides the same liquidity wave. Reuters+1
Dollar setup
The dollar index sits around 97.8 to 97.9 ahead of US inflation data. A soft read likely extends dollar softness and keeps the crypto and equity bid intact. A hot surprise would spark a dollar pop toward the 100 day moving area noted by sell side morning notes. Translation for traders. Watch DXY. If it breaks below 97.1 the crypto squeeze can go further. If it rips toward 98.6 the party pauses. MarketWatch+1
Patrick’s prediction
Opinion
I am bullish into the New York morning and I stay that way unless DXY jumps sharply after the inflation print. My base case is BTC tags 116K to 118K within the next 24 to 36 hours with ETH pushing 4.5K plus. If DXY sinks under 97.5 today the squeeze can extend to 120K for BTC before the weekend. If DXY spikes the trade becomes buy the first clean flush into 111K to 112K.
Why it matters
Crypto respects the dollar. A softer dollar keeps the tailwind alive
ETF flows are real money and they offset supply
Equities remain risk on which supports cross market liquidity
Trade the levels not the noise
FAQ
What is driving BTC today
Positive ETF flows and a firm risk backdrop with stocks near records and the dollar cooling. CoinDesk+2Reuters+2
Is ETH lagging BTC
ETH is tracking BTC with slightly higher beta and will likely outperform on a BTC breakout above 116K. CoinDesk
What could flip the script
A hotter than expected US inflation print that lifts DXY and dents risk appetite near term. SC.com
Related Articles
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Dollar slips to 7 week low forex pairs react https://www.usdxchange.com/usd-market-news/dollar-slips-to-7-week-low-forex-pairs-react
Market roundup USD slides stocks and crypto climb https://www.usdxchange.com/usd-market-news/market-roundup-usd-slides-stocks-crypto-climb
Closer line
BTC loves soft dollars and easy liquidity and right now it has both.
Sources
CoinDesk Bitcoin price page for current BTC price as of early US morning. CoinDesk
CoinDesk Ethereum price page plus Coinbase ETH price check. CoinDesk+1
CoinDesk report on positive BTC and ETH ETF flows. CoinDesk
CoinDesk technical note on risk reversals and bull trap warnings ahead of inflation. CoinDesk
Reuters records and futures tone after Oracle surge and AI optimism. Reuters+1
Bloomberg and MarketWatch dollar index quotes near 97.8 to 97.9. Bloomberg+1
Disclaimer
This information is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
